NFL GridIron Gab Daily Digest

Jclombardi reviews game day headlines.

Guest senior writer jclombardi @ http://lombardiave.com

Packers vs Redskins preview: Teams: Packers (3-1) vs. Washington Redskins (2-2). Time: Noon CT, Sunday. Place: FedEx Field, Landover, Md. TV coverage: FOX – WITI (Ch. 6) in Milwaukee and WMSN (Ch. 47) in Madison. Packers injury report–S Morgan Burnett (knee) was placed on season-ending injured reserve on Thursday. LB Nick Barnett (wrist), LB Brandon Chillar (shoulder), CB Sam Shields (calf) and FB Quinn Johnson (glute) are out. RT Mark Tauscher (shoulder) is doubtful. LT Chad Clifton (knee), S Nick Collins (knee), DE Cullen Jenkins (hand), S Derrick Martin (ankle), S Charlie Peprah (quadriceps) and CB Charles Woodson (toe) are probable. Line: Packers are favored by 2 ½ points.  Prediction: Packers' vibe coming out of last week's win wasn't a good one. Rodgers questioned the play-calling, McCarthy had to remind the players that they'd actually won the game. Maybe the Redskins' porous secondary is the tonic for what ails the Packers' inconsistent offense. The guess here is that the Packers finally put a full game together despite the disconcerting injuries. But that's all it is, a guess. Packers 24, Redskins 20.

Game Scout–Packers vs Redskins: Keys to Game–With Portis (groin) out, the Redskins won’t veer from the run-first approach that worked at Philadelphia with RB Torain, but expect more from McNabb against the Packers’ beat up defense that is without injured S Burnett and LBs Barnett and Chillar. Redskins defensive coordinator Haslett has hugged the throttle with blitzes when facing potent passing offenses with mixed results. He might back off a bit fearing pronounced mismatches with TE Finley. The Packers are still trying to replace RB Grant averaging 82 rushing yards in the past three games. Game plan: Quarterback Rodgers believes the spread formations out of shotgun is the best tonic for what has been ailing the Packers' talented inconsistent offense. The frustrated signal caller could get his wish with coverage-challenged Redskins defense. Washington ranks in the bottom of the league allowing a whopping 305 passing yards per game. Mixing in 15 to 20 runs between RB Jackson and FB Kuhn should be sufficient to keep Washington from selling out to defend the pass. Defensively, the Packers' aiming point is quarterback McNabb, an old former Eagles nemesis. Green Bay's run defense has allowed opposing QBs to break free for huge gains. Keeping the mobile McNabb from breaking containment in the pocket is a must. While the Packers won't see RB Portis, out with a groin injury, they will be tested by powerful RB Torain who gashed the Eagles for 70 yards in the Redskins' last game. Special teams coordinator Slocum will be under the gun to have punter Masthay and kicker Crosby not allow big-play returners Banks and Thomas the time and space for a long runback.

Emerging star LG Sitton: As Sitton emerges in his third year with the Green Bay Packers as one of the best offensive linemen on the team, Smith said the rest of the world is finally catching up to what he knew all along. ”That Josh Sitton is one heck of a player now,” former Packers general manager Ron Wolf said recently when asked which players he still liked to watch a decade after his retirement. “I don’t know why he doesn’t get his due. He is really a good player.”

What is Randy Moss? A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma, for sure, but the package – that elegant speed, those magical hands – is a dream, one that sometimes morphs into nightmare.

Thrilling and maddening, Randy Moss is one of those absurdly gifted athletes whose talent is outweighed only by his foibles: a fragile edifice of sulks, insecurities and grandiosity. Can any team, coach or owner, any fan-base, ever love him enough?

I was psyched when Moss rolled into town. That nearly-legendary season, during which the Pats steamrolled and gamboled their way to 19-0, saw the anticipated pas-de-deux of Brady and Moss blossom into a mad dance of stats smashed.

The numbers probably don't bear this out, but in my recollections, gilded by the passage of time (and subsequent nostalgia for those glory days), Moss caught every pass Brady threw. No matter how thick the defensive crowd around him, Moss would emerge, leaping gazelle-like into the air and stretching out his fingers — if the ball came even close, it would shiver, tremble, pause and drift gently down into his hand.

He would glide into the endzone, tackling fingers slipping away as if his jersey were made of quicksilver. It was like Moss and Brady were two manifestations of the same intention – they completed each other.
Is anyone surprised that nobody can get a straight answer from Belichick about the need, the timing and the strategy of this trade? Was Moss too expensive, too old, starting to lose his luster?

Was he too contentious, too much the prima donna? To hear Belichick and Moss, in their respective press conferences, tell it, their relationship was more "Newlywed Game" than "Divorce Court." To understand how rosters are managed and developed to ensure not just current victories but future prospects would take someone far more adept at the calculus of football prognostication than I am.

Like a marriage, ultimately perhaps only the two of them really know the score, and now Moss rolls on to another field, another community of fellow players, coaches, fans and naysayers, to dazzle or disappoint.

In spite of all his high-maintenance antics, I'll miss him and I wish him well (except against his former team).

And to Rex Ryan, who "thanked" Belichick for the timing of the trade, which will allow Moss to play against the Jets on Monday night: well hey, you're welcome!

From: The Fantasy Flukie at FantasyFootballGab.com

Well it's been an interesting week. As I dig I find more and more bizarre things. You want to see Brett Favre's meat? I don't know why you would but it made the front page of the NY Post so it has got to be legit. The wacky world of txt messages and myspace.

You would think a grandfather would know better? Alas, he is a great player but dumb as a bleeping brick. Jenn Sterger does look eaaarrrilly like his wife….hence I believe this story is true. Wanna see more of Jenn Sterger? Google is an amazing thing. There won't be any mysteries after that search.

So Deion Branch is being rumored to be traded to the Pats. If Seattle gets anything for Branch I'll be impressed. This does follow the original Patriots game plan. One may forget but Brady didn't truly have great receivers until Moss appeared. This means that the Pats are a touch nervous with Tate and they want some insurance in case he flops or Welker goes down. Smart play on Belichick. This is why I respect him a great deal. He always hedges his bets.

So my favorite quote of the day is from rotoworld: "With Steve Smith (ankle) out this week, both rookies are expected to start, leaving newly signed David Clowney in the No. 3 role.

Gettis has seven catches for 87 yards on 16 targets while LaFell has just 4 receptions and 67 yard on 15 targets. This passing offense is a hot mess." When David Clowney is your #3 WR you NFL team is BAD….very BAD. I don't see Gettis, Clowney, or LaFell having ANY VALUE.

I would start all 3 Bills receivers over this trio of fantasy death. Rotoworld says it best…..the Panthers passing game is "a hot mess." This hurts the running game as well. I hate to say it but Deangelo Williams is at best a RB3 and Jonathan Stewart isn't even startable.

Click HERE to read the rest

The water Brett Favre is in seems to just keep getting hotter.

We talked earlier about the New York Jets willingness to cooperate with the NFL's investigation into alleged (seriously, people, the keyword here is indeed "alleged") behavior that would implicate him under league rules on personal conduct.

The Jets have already provided the NFL with the contact information of two message therapists, working for the team when Favre was the quarterback of the Jets, who are thought to be the targets of unwanted and unsolicited sexual advances from Favre via text messages and cell phone pictures.

Now it has been learned that Jenn Sterger, another person who is supposed to have been in receipt of inappropriate texts and photos from Favre, is also going to be a willing participant in the NFL's investigation.

As of yet, neither Sterger or the two message therapists have gone public with their claims. The allegations have been pushed forward by deadspin.com and they say that their supposed evidence has all been received via a third party.

Whether this proves to be a distraction to the Vikings at an inopportune time is yet to be seen. Any official discipline as a result of the investigation would likely not be handed down until the 2010 season is completed.

Peter King of SI.com and NBC Sports reports that Sterger will not pursue harassment charges on Favre.

4 To Watch:

New York Giants vs. Houston Texans: The Texans are really strutting their stuff this season, and the Giants are struggling to rise to the top of the NFC East.  They won't do it this weekend.  Look for the Texans to win by a narrow margin.

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins: Aaron Rodgers has had my vote from the start.  I only wish Favre would have jumped ship earlier while the offensive line was still holding a firm pocket.  Thankfully, they're vulnerable to the blitz now, and the defense plays down and dirty, kind of like a few teams in the NFC East we could mention.  Look for them to score a ton of penalties. And the 'Skins, hot off their second division win and playing at home, will take full advantage.  Ryan Torain is ready to show the world that he's not an injury prone has-been who never-was.  We may struggle in the passing game, but at the end of the day, our defense will hold strong, force a few turnovers, and pull out the win—Go 'Skins!

Tennessee Titans vs. Dallas Cowboys: These teams have no love for one another.  Fortunately, neither one really has a handle on the football either.  Look for a game filled with penalties and false steps, big plays and bigger turnovers, and angry, sullen faces on both sides.  I hope the ref's brought their cold compresses!  I'm going with the Titans, but I'll be gritting my teeth the whole time.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets: Two of the bossiest men in football will finally get to go head-to-head on Monday night—Rex Ryan and Brett Favre.  Try imagining Ryan in Childress' position.  Right.  Try imagining Brett Favre talking trash—wait a minute.  Oh well, none of it will make a difference on Monday night.  Mark Sanchez will show Brett what it means to be Super Bowl bound.  I'm taking the Jets by 10.

Upset:
The Indianapolis Colts have been having a tough year, and it won't get any better when they lose to the Kansas City Chiefs at home this Sunday.

Who Cares?

Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers:  Julius Peppers can't wait to get back home so he can show John Fox what it means to be on a winning team.  The Bears are going to have all kinds of fun ripping the Panthers to shreds.  This game will really be one to watch, but the four above will be more competitive.

Jacksonville's finally got a spark, and the Bills haven't found one yet this year, but I think this Sunday will belong to Buffalo at home.

Tampa Bay will lose to the Bengals.

St. Louis Rams will beat the Detroit Lions in a messy game that will make everyone rethink their opposition to a work stoppage.

The Falcons will easily handle the Browns, despite Delhomme's return to action, or perhaps because of it.

Baltimore will win at home against the Denver Broncos.

Arizona will lose at home to the New Orleans Saints.

The Chargers will beat the Raiders.

Philadelphia will crush the 49'rs.

The Bengals have not had any serious discussions with head coach Marvin Lewis about a contract extension, sources told Yahoo! Sports’ Michael Silver.

Lewis received an informal offer during the offseason that would keep his salary relatively similar to his current salary, which is considered in the middle of the pack among head coaches.

The question is, does Lewis deserve an extension? The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game with him as head coach, and it seems that despite winning the AFC North a season ago, they are heading nowhere fast and will need a turnaround to be a force in 2010.

The coach has been a steadying force for the Bengals, but in thinking about the future without him, one has to wonder if the team can do better should he be allowed to hit the open market after the season.

As simple as that: Just give Calvin the rock

The Lions opened the season with three divisional road games, three games against 2009 playoff teams and played the majority of four games without Matthew Stafford.  The Lions sit at 0-4 after the most daunting stretch they should face all season.  There will be other difficult points in the schedule, but by that time the Lions may have Stafford back.

The Lions get the Rams at home this week in a "Might Have Been 0-16? rematch.  The Lions had the opportunity to play the Rams at home last season and move past the laughingstock stage of rebuilding.  Instead they lost, primarily because of Stan Kwan's predictability, and missed the opportunity to add another team to the lonely 0-16 Club.  The Lions have a shot at redemption tomorrow.

Lions' Advantages

• The Rams are coached by Steve Spagnuolo who is a disciple of the late Jim Johnston.  Spagnuolo favors exotic blitzes and tries to exploit matchups to generate pressure on the quarterback.  This actually plays into the Lions favor.  The Lions have the weapons to exploit the blitz and they were able to pick apart the Eagles' defense, which is a very similar style defense, with considerably more talent.  The Lions struggle with teams that can get pressure with four and keep seven in coverage because that allows them to get creative in their coverage of Calvin Johnson.  When teams blitz, they usually play man to man coverage and that is far easier to exploit with the Lions' size and speed advantage.  The Rams will have to choose between rushing four and giving the Lions time to throw, or blitzing and exposing themselves to matchup issues.
• The Lions have faced a Jay Cutler, Michael Vick, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers in the first four weeks and really had difficulty with them.  Sam Bradford may be playing well for a rookie, but he's the first quarterback the Lions face that hasn't made a Pro Bowl.  Bradford has only played one defense that was able to get pressure on him and they lost that game, the other three games were against terrible pass rushing teams.  The Lions should have the advantage in tomorrow's game.
• The Rams' defensive line has been drawing praise after the first four weeks, but they have gone up against the abysmal offensive lines of the Cardinals, Raiders, Eagles and Seahawks.  The Lions line is not dominating, but they are better than anything those four teams are trotting out right now.  The Lions should matchup well against the Rams defensive front.

Lions' Disadvantages

• Steven Jackson is going to count as two disadvantages.  He is a big bruiser with moves and excellent receiving ability.  He has been a major factor every time the Lions have faced him and tomorrow shouldn't be any different.  The defensive line has done extremely well against the run, but the linebackers have blown assignments, missed tackles and haven't made any big plays to offset their mistakes.  Jackson is a huge threat catching passes out of the backfield with his moves and power.  Jackson will be trouble for the Lions this week.
• If the Lions can't establish the run, they could struggle to throw the ball against the Rams secondary.  The Rams have two Pro Bowl caliber players in the secondary with Ron Bartell and OJ Atogwe.  Atogwe hasn't been as much of a ballhawk the last couple seasons, but he is always in position and makes sound tackles.  Bartell is able to man up against most receivers with out a lot of help, but nobody in the NFL can cover Calvin Johnson one on one.  If the Lions don't establish the run, the Rams will be able to give Bartell help over the top and Calvin could have a limited day.

Wild Card

The wild card will be the Lions establishing the run again.  In order for the offense to operate at its best, the Lions have to establish the ground game as a threat.  Not just picking up some yards here and there to keep the defense honest, but an actual threat that says, "if you don't stop the run, we will beat you with it."  If the Lions establish the run, they should be able to abuse the Rams secondary with all their weapons.  If they don't establish the run, the Rams can focus on CJ and force the Lions to beat them with underneath throws to the tight ends.

Prediction

The Lions have played four teams that are all better than the Rams, and faced three of them on the road.  They were in position to win three of those games and couldn't close.  The Rams are improved over last year, but the Lions definitely have more big play talent on both sides of the ball.  I think the Lions get on the board tomorrow.

Romo, pointing to one of his many harsh critics

Tennessee Titans (2-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
Where: Cowboys Stadium
When: 4:15 pm EST on CBS, Jim Nantz-Phil Simms

The Cowboys welcome the Tennessee Titans to town on Sunday. The Cowboys are ready to get back to work after a bye week last week. Despite getting off to a slow start to the season, Dallas is optimistic about getting back on track and getting those early season bugs worked out. Not a moment too soon, as Jeff Fisher bring his high motor Titans into town.

There are some very dangerous players playing in this game. For the Cowboys they will look to get RB Felix Jones more involved in the offense this week. Jones has been held in check hovering around 7-8 touches a game and making very little impact on the outcome of games this season. Jones has exceptional speed and quickness and can make defenders miss in the open field. The will look to get him the ball in space which means screens and sneaking him out of the backfield on passing downs. With Jones' speed the Cowboys will also try to use him on tosses and sweeps around the ends. Another player the Cowboys want to get involved is TE Jason Witten. In the first two games of the season Witten was held in check only catching 8 passes. In week 3 against Houston Witten hauled in 7 catches and was instrumental in the Cowboys moving the chains. The Cowboys will look to get Witten the ball to keep drives going. While it may not be flashy, against a tough and very quick Titans defense the Cowboys will need to move the chains.

For the Titans, their two weapons are in their backfield. RB Chris Johnson is the fastest player in the NFL. When he gets the ball, defenses need to stay disciplined and bottle him up. Look for the Cowboys to creep up a safety to try to contain Johnson. The Cowboys defense has been good against the run up until their game against the Texans when they gave up 130 yards on the ground. Johnson is an electrifying player who has had a rough start to the season, but is due to break out. He is also a threat out of the backfield on passing downs. The other key player for the Titans is QB Vince Young. Young is a dual threat. He can throw the ball but he can also use his legs to escape the pass rush and pick up yards on the ground. While Young can make all the throws, he is also big and fast and does not shy away from contact.

The Titans have faced some controversy this week. After their loss to the Broncos last weekend, the Broncos were making mention of how the Titans were "dirty" and "cheap". Broncos QB Kyle Orton was one of the biggest critics. The Cowboys were not bated into a discussion about it. All they would say is that the Titans are a very hard working and competitive. Coach Wade Phillips was quick to say, "They are a very aggressive and hard working team. They are prepared to play every week, which is what you expect from a Jeff Fisher coached team." The Cowboys will need to be prepared to match if not exceed their intensity.

This game will come down to defense. Whichever team is able to bottle up the other teams main weapons will be the team that comes out on top. Dallas will bottle up the run and make the arm of Vince Young beat them. Young lacks real weapons on the outside with WR's Kenny Britt and Nate Washington his biggest targets.

At the end of the day I think the Cowboys will do enough on offense and bottle the Titans up on defense. They will pick up a key home victory 31-17.

Things To Watch For:

1) Cowboys rookie WR Dez Bryant is looking to make a bigger impact this week. He has been steadily improving each week and has the speed and hands to cause a lot of problems for the Titans lack of depth at the corner position.

2) Titans CB Cortland Finnegan is close to a shut down corner but his aggressive nature can get him out of position sometimes. Look for the Cowboys to go after him with Miles Austin and try to set up a couple of big strikes down the field by tossing some quick hitters and comebacks.

3) The running backs on both sides of the ball. Both teams are going to try to run the ball. It may come down to who establishes the better game on the ground and can eat up the most clock keeping the opposing offense off the field.

Is Hakeem among the NFC’s best wide receivers?

Time for my weekly matchup battles for the Giants and the Texans.

This week the 2-2 Giants travel to the 3-1 Texans. Its a big game for the Giants.

Let's get down to the nitty gritty.

Quarterback

Few people  know that Matt Schuab is actually part of the 2004 QB class and per stat compared to the other 2004 QB Schuab has put up as good if not better numbers. Schuab has a career QB rating of 91.7 QB rating and 7.5 yards per attempt. Schuab has completed 65.4 percent of his throws for his career. He has in a word been productive since he became the Quarterback of the Texans.

The thing Schuab doesn't have though is the wins. A  career 19-21 record as a starting Quarterback.

Eli Manning on the other hand isn't the statistical wonder Schuab is but has been productive in his career, and more importantly Eli has been a Winner. He's won a division title, led his team to the playoffs four years and won a superbowl.

Advantage Giants. Schuab puts up numbers, but does he put up wins? He's also missed his fair share of games as a starter. Schaub plays well, but he's not Eli Manning.

Running Backs

Heading into the season you would say the Giants have Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. The Texans have Arian Foster (Rookie Ben Tate got hurt) and Steve Slaton advantage Giants. But then Foster busted out and leds the league in rushing. Then the Texans signed Derrick Ward who is a nice complementary back. And then they have the exciting Steve Slaton. Slaton contributed a lot on special team, which the Giants running backs don't. I don't trust Arian Foster as for real yet, but the depth is better and right now Arian Foster is the best running back on either team.

Advantage: Texans. Hopefully the Giants will play well on defense, but Arian Foster has shown he can be a dominant force when on. I'm not sure he'll have long term success, but as of right now he's running  like he's Eric Dickerson or Walter Payton. He was benched last week for the start of the game and winded up running for a 131 yards on 16 carries. He's also caught the ball out of the backfield.

Wide Receiver

I think this is the most intriguing "battle" of  course these units will not face each other on the field. But in this hypothetical little game it's fun to think about.

The Texans have the best WR in the league in Andre Johnson, a complete WR who routinely puts up huge numbers. Along with Johnson, the Texans rely on Kevin Walter one of the most underrated Wide Recievers in the league. He's not great, but he's very solid and reliable. He had back to back seasons of 800 receiving yards before he only played in 14 games last year (and last year he had 611). Walter has 20 catches for 242 yards this season with 3 Touchdowns, which are comparable to Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks numbers this year. third WR Jacoby Jones is hurt and then there is a big drop off.

That's what makes this "matchup" interesting.  The Giants don't have Andre Johnson, but they do have Hakeem Nicks maybe the best young WR in the league. They have one of the top three third down WR's in the league. And then they have Mario Manningham, who has played really well and is averaging 17 yards per carry on the season.

Advantage: Right now it's the Texans WR because Andre Johnson is amazing and Walter is consistent while the Giants young WR can still be mistaken prone and have had the dropsies this year. If I'm picking a corps for the next five years I'll take the Giants WR, If I'm taking one for this Sunday I'd have to take the Texans.

Tight End

The Giants are carrying three tight ends at the moment with Bear Pascoe, Travis Beckum, and Kevin Boss. The Texans carry three tight ends as well with Owen Daniels, Joel Dressen, and James Casey.

This year Owen Daniels only has 7 catches for 68 yards. Dressen has 7 for 119 and Casey has zero catches. The Giants don't use their tight ends, a ton, and while Beckum is improving, he has only 6 catches so far this season. Boss has five catches for 110 yards.

Advantage Texans. Daniels has been one of the most consistent and productive tight ends in the league the past three years. He had over 500 yards receiving last year in only 8 games and averaged about 800 yards the two years before that. A very good pass catcher.

Offensive Line

The Texans line has no one you have ever heard of, but sometimes that's a good sign for a team. The Giants have more marquee names and way more depth. The Texans Oline can't be all that bad though, even though they have given up 11 sacks their Running game has been phenomenal and teams can't run if they have an awful offensive line.

Advantage Giants.

One of the biggest problems recently for the Texans is some of their poor blocking, which might have cost them a playoff spot the past couple of years. This year they are finally able to run the ball and even though the Giants oline is struggling they are more proven and I think the Giants will eventually insert Shawn Andrews at tackle and be much better later in the season.

Defensive Line.

The Texans have quitely put together a very good offensive line. They have the freak Mario Williams who already has five sacks on the season. They also have Antonio Smith who is a solid player in the NFL Amobi Okoye has been in the league four years and just turned 23 in June this year, which is impressive, but he hasn't been as good as the Texans had hoped since his rookie year when he had 5.5 sacks. The line is very solid for the Texans, but the depth leaves something to be desired and they have one big time play maker and a bunch of solid pros along the rest of the line.

The Giants dline can abuse poor blocking like they did vs the Bears, but have been subdued a lot the past two seasons. The Giants have a lot of money invested into the line. Justin Tuck is a fantastic run stopping defenive end. JPP has a lot of talent. Umeinyora is great at focing fumbles. Canty can be inconsistently dominant and Coefield is good.

Advantage Giants.

The Giants have a good offensive line that has been inconsistent.When the line is on though, there is no better  unit, the problem is they are not always on.

Linebackers

This is usually a loss for the Giants and this week is no different. The Texans have two very good physical tackling machine linebackers with Demeco Ryans and Brian Cushing, and the other linebacker no one has ever heard of Zac Diles is 10th in the league with 37 tackles in the first four games.

Cushing is a monster at times, Ryans is 11th in the league with 36 tackles. The Texans linebackers make  plays.

The Giants linebacker corps isn't as bad as people make them out to be, but they are not great. Jonathan Goff is emerging as a pretty good Two down run stuffing linebacker. The Giants linebackers need to be on Sunday or this defnese could be exposed.

Advantage Texans

The Texans have play making linebackers. Not just linebackers who are there. These are big time linebackers with Cushing and Ryans. Thankfully for the Giants Cushing is coming off a four game suspension and might not be in football shape which might slow him down, but even if that happens the Texans linebackers are superior.

Secondary.

Perry Fewell knows secondaries. Right now the Giants rank second in the league in pass defense with only 139.8 yards per game and have five interceptions this year from their secondary members. Last year the Giants had 13 total and 11 from the secondary. They seem on pace to break that from last year.

The Texans on the other hand are last in the league in yards per game at over 330 yards a game. If the Giants passing game doesn't get going this weekend it could be a long year.

Coaching

Coach Kubiak vs Coughlin.

Kubiak has not been to the playoffs ever even though he's had talented teams. Coughlin has beento the playoffs a lot and is a winner.

Special Teams

Steve Slaton hasn't been as impressive returning kicks as his speed would indicate he could be (about 20 yards per return). Their best punt returner might be hurt, but still at least they have something to work with.

The Texans punter is only averaging 41 yards per punt (not net, total yards on each punt) with four inside the 20. Neil Rackers is a pretty good NFL kicker, but so is Tynes.  I haven't watched enough Houston games to know how good their coverage units are.

Advantage Texans.  The Giants special teams are awful, I don't think Houston's is very good, but they are not awful.

Can Antonio Gates be contained?

Week 4 Results ATS:  7-7

Season Record ATS: 28-31-3

Week 4 Confidence Meter Points: 38 out of 105

Week 4 1-Star Games: 1-1, 1 for 14.  2-Star Games: 2-1, 7 out of 21.  3-Star Games: 1-2, 5/17.  4-Star Games: 2-1, 13/22.  5-Star Games: 1-2, 12/31.

4-star game, 6 on the confidence meter: Denver Broncos (+7) @ Baltimore Ravens – Orton’s arm is too lethal for Denver not to cover.  Strength of Broncos defense is their secondary.  Strength of Ravens offense is their passing attack.  McDaniels’ squad matches up well with Baltimore.  Denver Broncos 28 Baltimore Ravens 24

0-star game, 2 on the confidence meter: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (PICK) – First “even” spread of the season.  First 0-star game of the year.  Enjoy Gus Johnson.  On that note, Steve Tasker too.  For what its worth: C.J. Spiller will excite; like I say every week.  Matter of fact, Spiller will go for over 300 all-purpose yards.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Buffalo Bills 24

5-star game, 5 on the confidence meter: Game of the Week – Kansas City Chiefs (+7) @ Indianapolis Colts – Indy’s defense is vulnerable to the big play on the ground.  On the flip side, Kansas City’s defense is suspect defending the big play via the air.  Something’s gotta give.  Calls for a sensational, evenly played contest.  This game is significant towards the Chiefs case as contenders.  Kansas City Chiefs 23 Indianapolis Colts 27

3-star game, 3 on the confidence meter: St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3) – Expect to see an abundance of aerial fireworks with Bradford and Hill.  Scoring will be on display, and this could play out like one of the better games of the week.  Talent is evident on both sides offensively.  Shootout.  St. Louis Rams 26 Detroit Lions 31

2-star game, 1 on the confidence meter: Atlanta Falcons (-3) @ Cleveland Browns – Trap game for dirty birds.  Who’s going to cover Roddy and Tony?  I’ll take Matty Ice over any Cleveland signal caller.  Falcons are finding ways to win.  Atlanta Falcons 20 Cleveland Browns 10

2-star game, 4 on the confidence meter: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-7) – Not at all thrilled about picking this battle between Bucs and Bengals.  Cannot get a read on either club.  Cincy’s defense will stifle Freeman.  Tampa Bay Buccaneeers 13 Cincinnati Bengals 21

1-star game, 9 on the confidence meter: Chicago Bears (+3) @ Carolina Panthers – Too many unenlightening games in Week five.  Collins will turn over the ball less than Clausen.  This proves to be the difference, as Chicago’s defense/special teams does its things.  To be expected.  Nothing more, nothing less.  Chicago Bears 17 Carolina Panthers 10

5-star game, 11 on the confidence meter: Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (+3) – Ride the momentum.  Look for Washington to carry over last week’s defensive performance to the Nation’s Capital.  By game’s end, you’ll see why the ‘Skins are in the hunt for the NFC East race.  Green Bay Packers 17 Washington Redskins 24

4-star game, 7 on the confidence meter: New York Giants (+3) @ Houston Texans – Another example of where a team can get hot at the right moment and use it to propel them the following week.  Foster is playing out his mind, however, the Giants D will produce a performance out of this world in this closely contested affair.  Put me down as a super fan of the NFC East.  New York Giants 19 Houston Texans 17

1-star game, 10 on the confidence meter: New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Arizona Cardinals – Drew Brees vs. Max Hall.  What can we expect from the Cards?  Even the Saints, what has stood out about their play through the first quarter of the season?  Another unworthy game.  New Orleans 28 Arizona Cardinals 16

3-star game, 8 on the confidence meter: San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (+6.5) – As strange as it sounds, I’m jumping on the Bruce Gradkowski bandwagon.  He is Oakland’s starting QB the next 3-4 years.  The next Kerry Collins.  Impressed by his poise.  San Diego giving the Raiders too many points on the road.  I smell a back door cover.  San Diego Chargers 26 Oakland Raiders 20

5-star game,  12 on the confidence meter: Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) – Titans are catching the ‘Boys at a bad time: Cowboys are winners of past five games following a Bye.  Also, Tennessee is tied for second in the NFL with 16 sacks.  However, Dallas leads the NFL allowing just one sack this season.  Chris Johnson will be hard-pressed searching for running room.  Big D is seeking to ruin Vince Young’s return to his home state.  This game will not be as close as it should be.  Tennessee Titans 16 Dallas Cowboys 29

3-star game, 13 on the confidence meter: Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) – No faith in Kolb.  49ers are finally due for their first victory.  Frank Gore is heating up.  I don’t see Philly generating enough big plays to rattle the Niners.  Philadelphia Eagles 17 San Francisco 49ers 23

5-star, 14 on the confidence meter, Scintillating Sensational Showdown: Minnesota Vikings (+4) @ New York Jets – The most entertaining game of the week will be a surprisingly one-sided affair.  Minnesota’s offense will jump out to a big lead early, getting things going from the opening possession.  Keep an eye on Percy Harvin to bust out.  Defensively, Mark Sanchez will not buy enough time.  Front line will get to him all night long.  This is the game that reminds everyone the Vikings are a force to be reckoned with.  Minnesota Vikings 31 New York Jets 17