NFL GridIron Gab Daily Digest

Senior writer jclombardi highlights Packers vs 49ers previews, keys & game plan.

Game scout–Packers vs 49ers: Kickoff–high noon Sunday. TV–Fox. Injury report–CB Pat Lee (ankle) is out. S Atari Bigby (hamstring) and S Anthony Smith (ankle) are doubtful. RT Bryan Bulaga (ankle), LT Chad Clifton (knee), CB Charles Woodson (toe), DE Ryan Pickett (ankle), LB Clay Matthews (shin) WR Greg Jennings (foot), S Nick Collins (shoulder), DE Cullen Jenkins (calf) and RB Dimitri Nance (concussion) are probable. Keys to the game–The 49ers’ offensive line dominated against Arizona, and needs another strong performance in front of RBs Brian Westbrook and rookie Anthony Dixon with Frank Gore done for the season. San Francisco isn’t as strong in pass protection and doesn’t want to expose QB Troy Smith to the Packers’ strong rush that has contributed to a plus-seven turnover margin. Green Bay hasn’t been able to run the ball effectively since losing its own lead back and will let QB Aaron Rodgers spread the field. A foot strain to red-hot WR Greg Jennings apparently won't be an issue. Game plan–The Packers are catching a big break with San Francisco’s do-everything RB Frank Gore out for the season. Still, the 49ers managed to win game at Arizona and 3-1 surge with Smith at quarterback. He isn’t a threat to put up big passing numbers and rarely throws the ball deep. Look for the Packers defense to crowd the box and bring consistent pressure when Smith does drop back to pass as they try to keep him from breaking the pocket and extending plays with his nimble feet. Veteran Brian Westbrook, against the Cardinals, had 23 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown. He has been a thorn in the Packers’ side both carrying the football and catching it in previous meetings. Green Bay is going nowhere with its running game, so there’s probably no use trying to light a spark against the 49ers’ stout and assertive front seven in their 3-4 scheme. San Francisco ranks sixth in the league against the run allowing an average of 98.3 yards per game , on par with the Packers’ meager 23rd-rated rushing output of 98.4 yards. That will leave it up to red-hot Aaron Rodgers to fire away in possibly another heavy dose of empty-backfield, four-and five-wideout sets against San Francisco’s underwhelming secondary. The Packers will be challenged on third down and is a calling card for the 49ers who are allowing opponents to convert at a rate of just 35 percent.

Five things to watch: Gore no more–The 49ers rushed for 261 yards in their 27-6 victory over Arizona on Monday night, with 31-year-old veteran running back Brian Westbrook doing most of the damage (136 yards on 23 carries) after starter Frank Gore went down with what turned out to be a season-ending hip injury. Gore, one of the league's top backs, had been backed up by Anthony Dixon; now, it appears Westbrook will get the bulk of the carries, with Dixon spelling him. Defending Davis–When the two teams met last year, 49ers tight end Vernon Davis had a huge day, catching six passes for 108 yards and a touchdown. The Packers tried a variety of coverage approaches, and none worked, with linebacker A.J. Hawk being beaten on a 32-yard catch, defensive back Jarrett Bush being beaten on a 29-yard catch and the combination of linebacker Clay Matthews and safety Atari Bigby giving up 24-yard catch. Against an offense with limited weapons, the Packers must contain Davis. Something to play for–While the Packers and 49ers have diametrically opposed records, they find themselves in the same spot in their respective divisions: One game out of first place. While the Packers are in the NFC mix at 7-4, one game behind NFC North leader Chicago, the 49ers are still in the hunt because of NFC West co-leaders St. Louis and Seattle are both under .500 at 5-6. So while the Packers may be viewed as the true playoff contender, the game is actually a big one for both teams. Running on empty: In Sunday's 20-17 loss Atlanta, halfback Brandon Jackson rushed 10 times for 26 yards and backup Dimitri Nance had one carry for no gain. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers led the team with 12 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown. It was the second straight game in which the Packers' backs combined to average less than 3.0 yards per attempt, with Nance (12 carries, 37 yards) and Jackson (14 carries, 28 yards) combining to average 2.5 yards per rush against Minnesota on Nov. 14. Meanwhile, fans hoping to see rookie sixth-round pick James Starks figure to get their wish. Five alive–The Packers ran 14 plays out of their "Big Five" package of Rodgers in the shotgun in an empty backfield with all five active wideouts, Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Brett Swain,  spread out last week against Atlanta. The formation had made its return for two plays against Minnesota on Nov. 21 – it had been in mothballs since tight end Jermichael Finley's emergence last season. The Packers gained 104 yards and five first downs and scored both their touchdowns, Rodgers' 1-yard keeper and his 10-yard touchdown pass to Nelson, came out of the formation. THE PREDICTION–The 49ers may technically be in the mix for the postseason, but they're also on the verge of firing Singletary and starting over. The Packers have seen two coaches fired the day after games against them (Dallas' Wade Phillips, Minnesota's Brad Childress), and while that's unlikely to happen again, the bounce Singletary and his team got from Monday night's victory figures to be short-lived. Packers 30, 49ers 10.

All of a sudden Henne, Dolphins offense looks recharged

Week 12 Results ATS: 8-8

Season Record ATS: 81-89-5

Confidence Points: 67 out of 136

4-star game, 13 on the confidence meter: Buffalo Bills (+5.5) @ Minnesota Vikings – Too easy.  Bills always cover.  Since week six bye, they haven’t lost against the spread.  Vikings shaky secondary and lack of offensive firepower makes this a near lock.  Buffalo Bills 26 Minnesota Vikings 23

4-star game, 4 on the confidence meter: Cleveland Browns (+4.5) @ Miami Dolphins – This is one of those games where my pick makes no sense whatsoever.  I’m going against all logic and the fact that Delhomme is starting for Cleveland.  Dolphins play too much bend but don’t break defense to win this game my more than a field goal.  This contest has a weird vibe to it.  Got a hunch Miami is going to win this game late, barely.  Cleveland Browns 20 Miami Dolphins 21

4-star game, 5 on the confidence meter: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-3) – Chris Johnson wakes up; even better, shows up.  Titans own Jaguars.   Why I do I possess a funny feeling I’m going to regret the following statement: Fisher’s friends are due for a good game.  Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Tennessee Titans 28

3-star game, 12 on the confidence meter: Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) – Revenge game.  Chiefs return the favor.  The trio of Cassel, Charles, and Bowe are clicking on all cylinders.  Denver Broncos 21 Kansas City Chiefs 52

5-star game, 14 on the confidence meter: Washington Redskins (+7) @ New York Giants – No way the Giants are a touchdown better than the ‘Skins.  They are satisfied with just a win, and that’s it.  No Nicks or Smith; narrow escape.  Washington Redskins 17 New York Giants 19

2-star game, 16 on the confidence meter, “Lock of the Week”: Chicago Bears (-4.5) @ Detroit Lions – Drew Stanton.  Was he even good at Michigan State?  Where’s Jeff Smoker when you need him?  Chicago Bears 34 Detroit Lions 0

3-star game, 8 on the confidence meter: San Francisco 49ers (+9) @ Green Bay Packers – Rodgers knows a loss mean no Playoffs.  I can’t envision Troy Smith having a good performance on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL.  With that said, “Backdoor Cover Special”.  San Francisco 49ers 15 Green Bay Packers 23

4-star game, 6 on the confidence meter: New Orleans Saints @ Cincinnati Bengals (+6.5) – Saints, Brees will be breezing by in cruise control.  The half point makes the difference.  New Orleans Saints 27 Cincinnati Bengals 21

5-star game, 10 on the confidence meter, “Upset of the Week”: Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) – Tampa’s due to show up for a big game at home.  Atlanta’s due for a slip-up.  Bucs should have beaten the Falcons the first time.  Atlanta Falcons 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

2-star game, 11 on the confidence meter: Oakland Raiders (+13) @ San Diego Chargers – Teams reverse last week’s efforts: Prime time dominance comes back down to earth, weak showing shows up strong.  Jacoby Ford and Mike Tolbert are playing out of their minds.  Intriguing match-up.  Oakland Raiders 27 San Diego Chargers 37

1-star game, 3 on the confidence meter: Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks (-5) – Who wants to watch this sad affair?  Carolina Panthers 12 Seattle Seahawks 18

3-star game, 2 on the confidence meter: Dallas Cowboys (+5.5) @ Indianapolis Colts – This game will be an odd defensive battle.  Both offenses will struggle.  I think Dallas does enough to keep it close.  Dallas Cowboys 17 Indianapolis Colts 21

2-star game, 7 on the confidence meter: St. Louis Rams (-3.5) @ Arizona Cardinals – How can anyone think the Cards will rebound from Monday night’s debacle?  Bradford is going to shred the Arizona defensive backfield.  St. Louis Rams 23 Arizona Cardinals 17

5-star game, 8 on the confidence meter: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-3) – I trust Baltimore to protect their starting QB better than Pittsburgh.  Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin will be prove to be too much.  Ravens will pick off Roethlisberger three times, and Terrell Suggs will “sizzle” as expected.  Pittsburgh Steelers 13 Baltimore Ravens 23

5-star game, 15 on the confidence meter, “Game of the Week”: New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-3.5) – Tom Brady cannot be stopped.  Mark Sanchez can be stopped.  The NFL’s best QB and MVP front runner does not lose at home.  Top team will show why it’s the top team.  I don’t know how the Jets defense can keep #12 off the field.  New York Jets 24 New England Patriots 44

It gets no bigger than this. The two top teams in the AFC North battle for what could be the division title Sunday night, as the Steelers play their 7th road game of the season (5-1) at Baltimore, their arch rival. While not much needs to be said about this one, we’ll try to give some keys and our usual prediction.

1. Don’t Waste Plays - Five of the last six meetings between Pittsburgh and Baltimore have been decided by four points or fewer, which means that every play is important to say the least. Things like punt coverage and kickoff returns are important, and the Steelers would do themselves good to take advantage and win field position. They also need to make sure to tackle well, and not allow the slippery Ray Rice to have a big play like the play on 4th down last season in Baltimore, or like Fred Jackson did last week in Buffalo when he broke free for a score that got the Bills back in the game.

2. Confuse Flacco – Ravens QB Joe Flacco is on a hot streak to say the least – In six games since October 17th, Flacco has 13 TDs, two interceptions and a 111.6 passer rating – the league's second-best in that stretch. If the Steelers are going to win this one, they need to force him to have a long night, and that includes disguising some coverages and making sure when guys like Lawrence Timmons and LaMarr Woodley get in the backfield, tackle Flacco, and don’t allow him to escape. Making it a long night for Flacco will be key in winning this game.

3. Take some shots with Wallace – Mike Wallace is the playmaker this season on offense for the Steelers. He has 12 receptions of at least 25 yards – second in the NFL. The Steelers are 10-1 when the second-year speedster catches a touchdown pass, and it would help spread the field a bit if Ben Roethlisberger can get some time and get a few down field shots to the young pass catcher. Even if it doesn’t result in a big play, it could lead to something else for an offense that needs to be careful and create some opportunities.

Prediction – The Steelers are 5-0 in their last five games vs the Ravens when Ben Roethlisberger is the starter at QB. He creates that escape ability that the team needs, and while his foot may hinder that, you can’t discount how important it is that he and the offense play well. You can bet that yards will be tough to come by, but with Roethlisberger in there, the team has a much better shot to win than without him. These two teams are so close, here’s thinking the Steelers make 1-2 more plays late to pull it out. Steelers 17 Ravens 16

According to Adam Caplan of FOXSports.com, Texans starting DE Mario Williams was dealing with a groin injury coming into Thursday night's game against the Eagles. Apparently, the injury was worse than first thought. "Obviously it's been bothering him but he's been fighting through it for the team," head coach Gary Kubiak said Friday.

"I know it's bothering him, just watching him play last night, watching him try to fight through it. He had some injections on Wednesday in Philadelphia before the game. Sometimes it takes a few days for those injections to kick in. He's been doing all he can but I know it's obviously bothering him. So we'll continue to treat him the same way we've been doing it, trying to bring him along to each game day. I think he's trying to give us everything he's got, but it's obviously been bothering him." Kubiak confirmed exactly what Williams' injury is. "Mario's sports hernia, you know he's been battling through that all year long. And that's about it."

The 49ers have a new kicker, as former Steelers kicker Jeff Reed has been inked to fill in for the recently-injured Joe Nedney.

Reed, who played almost nine seasons in Pittsburgh, was released by the Steelers after missing seven of 22 field goal attempts this season.

“I was a little dejected when it happened and I still kind of have questions about it, but that’s old news now,” Reed told the San Francisco Chronicle.

Nedney sprained his right knee Nov. 14 in the 23-20 overtime victory over the Rams and is expected to miss the remainder of the regular season.

While no one has officially announced it, it appears that Kerry Collins will be the starter Sunday when the Jags take on the Titans in Tennessee.

Collins took the full complement of first-team practice reps again on Friday and is listed as probable on the Titans injury report with a calf injury. Rookie quarterback Rusty Miller made his first NFL start last week for the Titans with Vince Young on injured reserve and Collins hurt.

"Kerry was better today. We're encouraged. We'll see how he warms up," Fisher said. "He's gotten plenty of reps. We'll see how he feels. It's different getting ready to warm up and practicing than it is getting ready to warm up and play a game. So we'll see how he is."

The Jets were dealt a big blow, as they placed safety Jim Leonhard on injured reserve Saturday, ending the season for one of the team's defensive leaders a day after he broke his right leg in practice.

A stabilizing rod was placed through Leonhard's tibia during surgery Friday night at Morristown Memorial Hospital, located a few miles from the team's training facility. The Jets announced that Leonhard is tentatively scheduled to be released Sunday or Monday, and is expected to make a full recovery. He had no damage to his fibula, ankle or knee.

"That was a huge blow to us," a somber coach Rex Ryan said after practice Friday. "He's a huge part of what we do."

The last time the Broncos and Chiefs played, the Broncos looked like the best team in the AFC West, while the Chiefs were the ones racing around playing catchup all day.

Now it’s a few weeks later, and the Broncos are playing spoilers, sitting at 3-8, while the Chiefs are frantically trying to hold off the Chargers for the first in the division at 7-4.

The Broncos won 49-29 a couple weeks back, they pounded the Chiefs in the first half, going up 35-0 – the largest first-half deficit in Chiefs history – and after the game Chiefs coach Todd Haley pointed his finger at Broncos coach Josh McDaniels, who extended his hand for the customary post game handshake, and turned and stomped away without shaking.

Haley apologized for his actions the following day but declined to say what upset him, setting up an interesting sidebar to this AFC West game Sunday.

The Chiefs are coming off a win in Seattle last week, 24-14, and amassed a season-best 503 yards at Qwest Field as Matt Cassel tied his career high with four touchdown passes. Three of them were to Dwayne Bowe, who extended his streak of at least one TD catch to seven straight games.

"We've become very hard to defend," Haley said. "That's our goal to be a balanced team, but it starts with the run."

For the Broncos, Kyle Orton had a huge game last time, and will need to do that again at Arrowhead if the Broncos are going to get the sweep.

The Broncos' win over the Chiefs last month is their only victory in seven games. With a 36-33 loss to St. Louis last Sunday, Denver fell to 5-16 since Nov. 1, 2009 – its worst 21-game stretch in four decades – and is one defeat away from missing the playoffs.

The best bet is to put it in the hands of Orton, who is the NFL leader with 3,370 passing yards, threw for 296 yards and a career-best four touchdown passes against Kansas City last month.

It won’t be enough though, as the Broncos are on their way to missing the playoffs again under Josh McDaniels, and the team has fallen apart after last weeks “Spygate” part two.

The Chiefs are the better team, and will get their revenge on Orton and the Broncos in winning this one.

Kansas City 34 Denver 24

Week 13: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday December 5, 2010 8:05 PM

Line: Ravens -3 O/U 39

Although on paper the final score was close, at no point did the Baltimore Ravens allow the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to believe that they had any business being in the game. Despite some miscues and another characteristic slow start, the Ravens pushed helpless Tampa Bay around and came out with a relatively easy victory. That was last week, this week, however, is a horse of a totally different color.

On Sunday evening, the Pittsburgh Steelers come sauntering into town to fight for control of the AFC North. On the line are bragging rights and a likely playoff bye in round one. To the victor go the spoils, and make no bones about it, this game will be an all out war. It always is. December 5, 2010 has been circled for months, and now we finally get to see who's best.

RavensGab.com Keys to the Game

THROW! THE! BALL!

Look, I know I normally belabor the point about the Ravens run game to the brink of nausea. This week however, I think the Ravens really need to air the ball out and spread the Steelers off the line. If they can attack the secondary with success early on it will open up the running game for Willis and Ray later as the fourth quarter drags on. it is not often that you hear me say this, but Cam needs to open up the play book and find Joe some pass plays that will allow him to chew up the Steelers D while avoiding their talented pass rush.
Protect the Ball

This is a game that is likely to come down to the final minute of regulation (and possibly beyond). The Ravens cannot afford to be sloppy with the football, as three points might be the difference between W & L. If the Ravens allow as few turnovers as possible they will almost certainly find themselves in the realm of victory. There exists no greater key to winning than protecting the ball.

Move the Ball Quickly

Speed and efficiency will be the names of the game on Sunday night. Joe must move the ball quickly to discount the incredible speed that the Steelers employ in beating up opposing offenses. Harrison and Woodley will come after you lighting fast, and if Joe doesn't get his passes out quick and his running lanes developed rapidly, this will be a very long night of football to watch. The same thing goes for the Defense. They need to be quick to the ball, quick to Ben, and quick to force the Steelers into three and outs. Do not let the tempo of this game draw into grind it out, smash mouth football. When that happens, the Steelers get lucky and they win games.

Make the Steelers Pay for Mistakes

If and when the Ravens make mistakes, and they will, the Ravens have got to turn those errors into points. Anytime the ball is turned over, and time the Steelers allow for an extended drive, the Ravens cannot come away empty. this has to be a death of a 1,000 cuts. Strike fast, strike often, and bleed this team out.

Play with Wild, Reckless, Merciless, Abandon, but for God's Sake Hit Smart

The Ravens have to come into this game like a hoard of screaming, howling, bat-poop insane barbarians. They have to hit as hard as they've ever hit before, run as fast as they possibly can run, and simply out muscle this team right off the field. If you can win the physicality battle with the Steelers you will almost always walk away with a victory. The key for the Ravens is to do all of these things, but do them smart. You know the refs are going to have itchy flag fingers, so do not give them an excuse to bury your team in penalties. Hit smart, aim with your shoulder, for god's sake WRAP UP in your tackles, and get the job done efficiently. The Steelers are an emotional team. if you out muscle them and keep your head about you, they will self destruct. Make them beat themselves at their own game.

Ravens Gab Predictions

Jonathon Scruggs (9-2)

Ray Lewis laughs at your three rivers, he laughs from his Mountain. These teams are as even as two teams can be. The edge goes to the Ravens playing at home before a psychotically charged up crowd.
Ravens 15 — Steelers 13

Matt Jergensen (9-2)

"These games are always hard hitting and points will be at a premium. There are a few factors that give Baltimore the edge in this one. First is lineplay – The Ravens appear to have the starting Offensive Line back intact as both Oher and Chester have practiced this week while the Steelers are struggling with injuries. Second the Home field advantage is usually a big key in these games and the Ravens have had great success playing at M & T. It should be enough to give the Ravens their second sweep of the Steelers in franchise history."

Ravens 20 – Steelers 13

Gene Winner (8-3)

The Ravens need to make a statement in this game by playing a complete game for four quarters. In this match up especially, Flacco and the offense must execute in the red-zone. On defense the key is containing Big Ben.  You have to like the Ravens at home

Ravens 20 – Steelers 18