NFL GridIron Gab Daily Digest

I go deeper on my podcast, and top it off with some Arena Football League news.

(Home team in bold)

Green Bay 20, Chicago 10
NY Jets 24, Pittsburgh 14

Senior writer jclombardi previews Packers keys & game plan to beat Bears.

Keys to the game: As red-hot as QB Rodgers is, playing the Bears in Chicago introduces several factors he didn’t have to deal with on the fast indoor surface in Atlanta last week. First is Soldier Field, which has tenuous footing and often a biting freezing wind in January. Second is the Bears’ Cover-2 defense, which will focus on eliminating big plays and forcing Rodgers to orchestrate lengthy scoring drives. Chicago wants to stuff rookie RB Starks so it can aggressively rush Rodgers, who will have mismatches downfield. Bears QB Cutler is coming off a strong postseason debut, but the Packers’ defense sacked him nine times during the two regular-season meetings. The Bears’ offense has been far more efficient since offensive coordinator Martz made a concerted effort to be balanced in his play-calling coming out of the team’s Week 8 bye. But he largely abandoned the run in the Week 17 loss as Chicago attempted to move the ball through the air too much on first down. Expect RB Forte to get plenty of early touches on the ground and through the air. The Bears don’t want Cutler forcing the issue against the strength of Green Bay’s pass rush and ball-hawking secondary. Game plan–If head coach/play caller Mike McCarthy can help it, the Packers will continue to be the two-dimensional offense that in the postseason has belied their pass-happy reputation. McCarthy puts more stock in quantity of carries than quality. The Packers are 7-1 when they have at least 30 rushing attempts, but they didn’t come close to hitting that benchmark in the two previous games against the Bears. McCarthy probably learned his lesson and won’t be so quick to forget about the run, especially if Rodgers endures a cold spell throwing the football in freezing conditions. Rodgers’ counterpart and friend has a good idea what he’ll be seeing from the Packers defense. Defensive coordinator Dom Capers was relentless with his pressure schemes in the second meeting, leading to six sacks of Cutler and only three points. The Packers have sacked Cutler nine times this season. Don’t look for Capers to tinker with the aggression-fueled success, but the threat of Bears running back Matt Forte could be an equalizer.

THINGS TO WATCH: MEN INSIDE: Cullen Jenkins appears to be almost fully recovered from a calf injury. That could bode ill for LG Chris Williams, who had never played guard until mid-October. “This is a great matchup for Jenkins,” a scout for a recent Bears opponent said. “Jenkins can really move this guy. Bull rush him. I think (Williams) is soft. When I think of mismatches, I think inside. This is where the Packers can win, with (B.J.) Raji and Jenkins against (Olin) Kreutz and Williams.“ RUN GAME: If you add the “Rating the Packers” football totals from the two regular-season meetings, running back was by far the Packers’ worst position. “Starks is kind of the X factor,” one scout said. “If they can run the ball, now they’ve got the Bears in trouble. You want to talk about keys to the game, it’s 44 (Starks). The Packers didn’t have anything going (rushing) the last time they played. The Bears forced them to be one-dimensional.” When the Packers run, the scout said they should run right at Brian Urlacher.“ CAT AND MOUSE: The Bears’ defense as coordinated by Rod Marinelli tries to confuse opponents. “The biggest thing they do is disguise their coverages,” one scout said. “That’s the No. 1 thing they’ve done this year. But Green Bay has a feel for them. The Packers hold the play clock. When Aaron Rodgers passes, it was going down to 3, 4, 5 seconds left. In the run game, you want to go on quick counts. That will get them out of their disguise. You want to get in and out of the huddle, and you want the quick counts in the run game because they can be a man short. If the Bears have an eight-man front call with the safety coming down (late) in the box, if you’re running they ball they’ll be a guy short if you quick-count.” BEAR FRONT: The Bears will rotate seven defensive linemen. “I truly believe the defensive line is why they’re winning,” one scout said. “I think there’s a powerful influence there by that coordinator on that line. They are very, very well-coached. They’re going to be around Rodgers. Those are two premier defensive ends, and if the Packers don’t find a way to do something about that they can suffer.” MAN UNDER CENTER: Jay Cutler is 1-4 as a starter against Green Bay. In chronological order, his passer ratings were 95.7, 43.2, 74.9, 82.5 and 43.5. “Tice is probably the most valuable coach on their staff,” one scout said, referring to the Bears’ first-year offensive line coach. “Even more so probably than Martz. Because he has been able to give that guy (Cutler) confidence.“

And so it comes down to this. Not many felt the Steelers would be there, but here they are, for the fourth time in seven years, the Steelers are a step away from the Super Bowl. In their last three, they have won two, losing once to the Pats back in Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season of 2004. The Steelers have a new foe ahead of them, the loud and brash New York Jets, who have already beaten the Colts and Patriots enroute to getting to this point. Here we go with our keys and pick for the title game at sub-zero Heinz Field Sunday night.

1. Pressure Sanchez a Lot More Than Five Weeks Ago – It’s been something that has been harped on all week, and there’s no doubt that the effort in getting to Mark Sanchez the first time around wasn’t enough. The Steelers registered one sack for no yards, and the Jets QB had plenty of time to throw and make plays, which he did. It may be more blitzes, or maybe just more determination to make a play. The presence of Troy Polamalu will help in the pressure, as it could make Sanchez hold the ball more. Also the Jets will be without tackle Damien Woody, who is out due to injury. James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley will both be huge keys for the Steelers, and if they have big days, the Steelers are going to win.

2. Extend the Plays - This of course falls on Roethlisberger, who does that as well as any quarterback in the NFL. The Jets in wins over the Colts and Patriots both weeks were able to get pressure up the middle on Manning and Brady, and Roethlisberger is very good at escaping that pressure and getting outside to make plays. The Steelers WR’s and TE’s know that a play with Ben is never over, and if the Jets start to get pressure up the middle, it will be the job of the Steelers QB and the pass catchers to come back to the ball and make plays.

3. No Cheap Giveaways – Last week the Steelers got themselves in a hole 21-7 on a couple turnovers. In the first game of the Jets they allowed a kick return for a score to start the game. It’s crunch time, and turnovers and special teams mistakes have historically killed the Steelers when they have lost AFC Title games in the past. The Jets are the underdogs, and some turnovers and issues on special teams can make it not only an even game, but give the edge to New York. The weather will be cold, but that’s no excuse to put the ball on the ground or to have picks and issues on special teams. If the Jets win, you can go back to this key as more than likely a reason they did.

Prediction – It’s been one heck of a ride for the black and gold. From the 2009 collapse, to the suspension of their franchise QB, to the way the team has rallied behind their all-world safety, Roethlisberger, and the emergence of two rookie WR’s that have had big plays over the past few weeks. The Steelers again have a shot to make it to the dance, their third in six seasons. The Jets are going to be a tough foe, but they have their weaknesses, and the Steelers are the better team. Usually the veteran QB steps up in these types of games, and while the Jets are boasting about having been here, no one has more experience in the final four than the Steelers. It’s going to be a knock down drag out fight, and while the Jets think they have enough to win this game, I have a feeling the Steelers have a couple big plays left in their bag for a trip to Super Bowl XLV in search of their record 7th Super Bowl. Steelers 24 New York Jets 20

The Dolphins came come to terms on a multi-year contract extension, with general manager Jeff Ireland. The deal comes after owner Stephen Ross inked coach Tony Sparano to a contract extension. The Dolphins have gone 25-24 under Ireland.

"The decision to extend Jeff's contract as our general manager was an easy one,” Ross said. “The young talent that Jeff has assembled during his three years with the Dolphins has made a profound impact on our franchise's recovery from the 1-15 season of 2007. Jeff has my full support moving forward as we pursue our goals to build the best and brightest front office in the National Football League and ultimately to win a Super Bowl championship for all of South Florida and Dolphin fans around the world."

Added Ireland: “I appreciate the support of the entire Dolphin organization, from Steve Ross all the way down, and I’m going to continue to work as hard as I can with Steve, Tony Sparano, and the rest of the team to bring the Dolphins back to their long-time position as one of the elite teams in the NFL. We have a young and talented nucleus to build on, and as we continue to add quality players through all the means available to us, we will give our fans the type of team they deserve.”

While the Jets have pretty much held back with the trash talking this week in their matchup with the Steelers in Pittsburgh, it seems that the line is finally starting to be crossed. Even a little bit.

Two Jets safeties on Friday spoke out about the physical nature of the hitting that Steelers WR Hines Ward does on Sunday’s out on the field. Both had some choice words for Ward if he feels he’s going to get a shot in on one of the Jets Sunday.

“We’re going to deal with him early so he knows what type of game it’s going to be, and that none of that stuff is being tolerated,” Jets safety James Ihedigbo said.

What “none of that stuff” is remains to be seen. Jets defensive coordinator Mike Pettine said the Jets refer to Ward as “the toughest player in the league, when no one’s looking.” Basically saying in so many words that Ward is a cheap shot artist.

The Jets took Pettine’s lead, and started running their mouths about Ward as well.

“We saw some of those plays, like in the Ravens game, he’s out there hitting Dawan Landry in the back, he came across and hit Ray Lewis in the back,” Jets safety Eric Smith said. “Ed Reed was 30 yards downfield and he’s going down and hitting him. It’s just unnecessary things like that that make you mad as a defender.”

While the safeties are crying like babies about Ward, one guy that seems to actually appreciate the hard nosed play of Ward is none other than Jets coach Rex Ryan, who knows all about the physical nature of Ward from his days in Baltimore as defensive coordinator.

“He’ll look for you now. If he can hit you, he’s going to. And I’ve seen him knock out a ton of guys before,” Ryan said. “Let’s face it, they changed a rule [for] Hines Ward about hitting a defenseless player and all that kind of stuff. But, quite honestly, he’s just finishing plays and there was no rule [before]. So he went out and he plays hard and he plays to the whistle. And that’s the kind of guy he is. I respect the heck out of Hines Ward.”

Maybe after a couple hits Sunday, Ryan’s safeties stop whining and will feel the same way.